Yankees vs Cubs July 31 2026: Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga — Probable Pitchers, Key Matchups & Prediction
Two of baseball's most iconic franchises collide at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, and the pitching matchup could not be more intriguing. Will Warren takes the ball for the visiting New York Yankees against Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs in a game with serious playoff implications for both clubs.
The Yankees (61-48) sit second in the AL East and have been grinding through an uneven stretch offensively. Their lineup, anchored by veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and the dynamic Jazz Chisholm Jr., has shown flashes but struggled for consistency against left-handed pitching. That's relevant today — Imanaga is exactly the kind of crafty southpaw who can give this Yankees order fits.
The Cubs (62-47), meanwhile, are locked in a tight NL Central race and have been one of baseball's hotter teams over the past month. They've gotten production from up and down the lineup, with Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Michael Busch all contributing. Wrigley in late July with the wind blowing out is a hitter's paradise — but both starters today have the stuff to quiet the bats.
Probable Pitchers: Warren vs Imanaga Breakdown
Will Warren enters at 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 102 strikeouts. The right-hander relies on a heavy sinker-slider combination that generates ground balls at an above-average rate. When his command is on, he can cruise through six innings without much trouble. The concern: Wrigley Field's tight dimensions can punish any pitcher who leaves the ball up in the zone, and Warren has been prone to the occasional loud inning.
Shota Imanaga counters at 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 113 strikeouts. The Japanese lefty has been Chicago's most reliable arm this season, mixing a riding fastball with a splitter that disappears under right-handed bats. He has faced limited Yankees hitters in his career, but the early returns are mixed — Goldschmidt took him deep once in 10 at-bats, while several Yankees regulars have yet to face him at all. That unfamiliarity could tilt the advantage toward Imanaga in the early innings.
Key Matchups to Watch
Paul Goldschmidt vs Imanaga is the headliner. The former MVP has a .300 average and a home run in 10 career at-bats against the Cubs' starter, and he'll need to set the tone from the middle of the Yankees order. For Chicago, Michael Busch has done damage against Warren in limited exposure — a home run and a 1.666 OPS in three at-bats — and Ian Happ is 1-for-2 with a walk.
The bullpen factor can't be ignored either. Both teams have leaned heavily on their relief corps during this stretch of the schedule, and the Cubs' late-inning arms have been slightly more reliable in high-leverage spots. If this game is close after six innings, Chicago's bridge to the ninth might be the difference.
What's at Stake
Every game counts in late July, but some count a little more. The Yankees are trying to keep pace in a division that includes the red-hot Baltimore Orioles, while the Cubs are fighting to stay within striking distance of the NL Central lead. A win today for either side could be the kind of momentum-builder that carries into a grueling August schedule.
The Yankees' recent offensive struggles have been well-documented. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of their last eight games, and the middle of the order — outside of Goldschmidt — has gone quiet at the worst possible time. Chisholm Jr. is hitting just .220 over his last 15 games, and the bottom third of the lineup has struggled to turn over against quality starters. If Imanaga establishes his splitter early, the Yankees could be in for another long afternoon.
For the Cubs, the formula is simpler: get a quality start from Imanaga, scratch across a few runs against Warren, and let the bullpen close the door. Chicago's relief corps has posted a sub-3.00 ERA over the past month, and closer Adbert Alzolay has converted his last seven save opportunities. If the Cubs carry a lead into the seventh inning, the odds swing heavily in their favor.
First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Grab a seat — this one has all the makings of a classic.
Sources: MLB.com, StatMuse, Baseball Predict
Last updated: July 31, 2026